Prediction time…for what it’s worth
Well, everyone else is doing it, and based on some of the ones that I’ve seen, I don’t think I can do any worse (see Michael Barone’s in TPM). My choices are based almost entirely on internet “chatter”, as the spooks at the CIA like to call it. Valuable resources include The Daily Kos, Eschaton, Table Talk, and even Free Republic where there is sometimes a pony to be found under all the horseshit. Since I live in the Democratic state of California, and we still have a free press here, I’ve aso picked up a few things here along the way..
I also want to take time to compliment the Daily Kos for all the work he has done tracking all the races. Absolutely terrific work.
I haven’t expended the energy looking into the House races because I expect that the Republicans will hold onto their majority, and also due to the fact that I consider the House to be the Minor Leagues when it comes to our political system. The Senate is The Show, where thought and prudence are at play, Jesse Helms and Don Nickles notwithstanding. So…my picks:
Arkansas — Pryor +1
Minnesota — Mondale
South Carolina — Graham
Missouri — Talent -1
South Dakota — Johnson
Georgia — Cleland
New Hampshire — Shaheen +1
Tennessee — Alexander
Iowa — Harkin
New Jersey — Lautenberg
Louisiana — Landrieu runoff in December
North Carolina — Dole
That is a pickup of one Democratic seat. Johnson in SD is the only one that I’m not completely sold on.
It’s stupid to make far-reaching predictions, like predicting in April what a baseball team will be doing in the playoffs, and then three weeks later their star pitcher blows out his elbow, but here are some other things I think:
1) I think that no matter who wins control, Lincoln Chafee will jump parties within a year. He is so marginalized within his own party, there’s no reason for him not to.
2) If Bush gets stuck for the rest of his term with a Democratic Senate, I think that McCain will become a major thorn in Bush’s side. Revenge being served cold.
3) Rehnquist or O’Connor will retire in the next two years for fear that Bush may lose in 2004 and not be able to name their replacement, and John Edwards will try and make his mark in the Supreme Court candidate hearings.
4) Post-war, and there is going to be a war, Cheney will resign for health reasons, but really to get out before the energy papers are turned over and Halliburton starts becoming an issue again. There is no way he is going to run in 2004, and it’s in Bush’s best interest to have an “incumbent” VP to run with. Who will take his place? They want Condi Rice, but I think that the big money that backs the Republicans will balk. Too much of a gamble. Everyone may think I’m cracked, but I think it will be Rob Portman of Ohio. Don’t ask me why, but his name pops up in weird places that remind me of when I first heard of Clinton.
5) I think there will be a challenge to Gephardt’s leadership in the house. Nancy Pelosi has balls that Gephardt can only dream of.
6) The campaign for 2004 starts on Wednesday. Campaigning for the Democratic 2004 ticket will be between Gephardt, Lieberman, Gore, Kerry, and Edwards. It will be ugly, but I’m picking Kerry with Edwards as his running mate. Kerry has the money and Edwards gives him an edge in breaking the Republican stranglehold on the south.
I could be wrong. I’m most likely wrong, and I bet you are all wishing I had a comments section so you could kibitz about it. But I don’t so you can’t, and, hell, in two years I may not even be doing this blog anymore because either John Ashcroft will have me locked up, or I will be too busy playing Doom III.
Life is like that in America.
Remember to vote…and stay tuned to Eschaton tonight (11/5) for updates on the election (even though it’s Buffy night). Me? I going to vote, go to dinner with my wife and daughter, and then go look at a new laptop my wife is going to let me buy which will allow me to spend more time with them, basking in their loving glow.
Life is like that at our house.