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Newt Gingrich Holds Massive Lead in Georgia

On Super Tuesday tomorrow, Newt Gingrich is at least assured one victory in his home state of Georgia. The most recent polling of the state found that he has about double the amount of support expressed for any other candidate.

Public Policy Polling
Newt Gingrich 47%
Mitt Romney 24%
Rick Santorum 19%
Ron Paul 8%
Someone else/Not sure 2%

InsiderAdvantage
Newt Gingrich 46.9%
Mitt Romney 21.1%
Rick Santorum 17.6%
Ron Paul 6.1%
Someone else 1.4%
No opinion 6.9%

It would appear that there is still a significant home state advantage in Presidential primary politics. While Gingrich is going to do very well in Georgia, the other polling for Super Tuesday indicates he is unlikely to do very well anywhere else.

I suspect that the Romney campaign ideally would have preferred to win Georgia but probably see a victory for Gingrich as a good second best scenario. The media will likely discount the win because it is Gingrich’s home state, but a strong win there will probably be enough encouragement for Gingrich to continue running. With Gingrich still in the race, the anti-Romney vote will remain split.

 

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Newt Gingrich Holds Massive Lead in Georgia

Gingrich's Georgia win could help Romney (Photo: gage skidmore)

On Super Tuesday tomorrow, Newt Gingrich is at least assured one victory in his home state of Georgia. The most recent polling of the state found that he has about double the amount of support expressed for any other candidate.

Public Policy Polling
Newt Gingrich 47%
Mitt Romney 24%
Rick Santorum 19%
Ron Paul 8%
Someone else/Not sure 2%

InsiderAdvantage
Newt Gingrich 46.9%
Mitt Romney 21.1%
Rick Santorum 17.6%
Ron Paul 6.1%
Someone else 1.4%
No opinion 6.9%

It would appear that there is still a significant home state advantage in Presidential primary politics. While Gingrich is going to do very well in Georgia, the other polling for Super Tuesday indicates he is unlikely to do very well anywhere else.

I suspect that the Romney campaign ideally would have preferred to win Georgia but probably see a victory for Gingrich as a good second best scenario. The media will likely discount the win because it is Gingrich’s home state, but a strong win there will probably be enough encouragement for Gingrich to continue running. With Gingrich still in the race, the anti-Romney vote will remain split.

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Jon Walker

Jon Walker

Jonathan Walker grew up in New Jersey. He graduated from Wesleyan University in 2006. He is now living in the Washington DC area. He created a politics and policy blog, The Walker Report (http://jwalkerreport.blogspot.com/).

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