Gingrich Wave May Be Starting to Ebb
Newt Gingrich continues to lead in all the national polls but we are starting to get the first signs that his incredible surge over the past two months is starting to fade. Over the past week Gingrich has been dropping steadily in the Gallup national daily tracking poll of the GOP primary.
In the December 8th tracking poll Gingrich was leading 37 percent to Mitt Romney’s 23 percent, but the most recent result from today put Gingrich at 29 percent compared to Romney’s 24 percent. That is an eight point drop in support for Gingrich in roughly a week.
Similarly there are some hints that in Iowa, where persuadable voters are paying the most attention since the caucus is only three weeks away, voters are souring on Gingrich. Both PPP and Rasmussen found Gingrich has dropped from his high in the state. In mid-November Rasmussen found Iowa at Gingrich 32 – Romney 19 – Ron Paul 10, but their poll out today has it at Gingrich 20 – Romney 23 – Paul 18. In a similar vein, PPP found Gingrich dropping 9 points in Iowa since last week. From PPP:
There has been some major movement in the Republican Presidential race in Iowa over the last week, with what was a 9 point lead for Newt Gingrich now all the way down to a single point. Gingrich is at 22% to 21% for Paul with Mitt Romney at 16%, Michele Bachmann at 11%, Rick Perry at 9%, Rick Santorum at 8%, Jon Huntsman at 5%, and Gary Johnson at 1%.
These are the first indicators Gingrich’s support could be waning. In the next few weeks we will see whether this is merely a to-be-expected hiccup as a result of the increased scrutiny of a front runner or the beginning of the Gingrich bubble bursting.