Elections

Election 2010: FDL Community vs. the Professional Prognosticators

With all the entries in Firedoglake’s Election Projection Challenge now in, I decided to see if the aggregate projections of the FDL community can outperform the professional political prognosticators. With that in mind, here is the average of all entries in our contest:

  • Democrats Hold 218 seats in the House
  • Democrats Hold 52.6 seats in the Senate
  • Prop 19 passes with 50.39% of the vote

That’s a loss of 37 seats in the House–or, to look at it another way, it leaves Democrats hanging on to the majority by a single seat. The Democratic caucus in the Senate would see a loss of six to seven members, still leaving it with a working majority.

At least that is how the FDL entrants saw it; as for the professionals. . . .

The professional prognosticators:

Cook Political Report: GOP gains 50-60 seats in House and 6-8 in the Senate.

The Rothenberg Report: GOP gains 55-65 seats in House and 6-8 in the Senate.

Larry Sabato: GOP gains 55 seats in House and 8 in the Senate.

Nate Silver: GOP gains 54-55 seats in the House and 7-8 in the Senate.

My personal prediction is that the Republicans will gain a net total of 51 seats in the House–giving them the majority and leaving the Dems with 204 seats–and Democratic caucus will hold on to 53 Senate seats. I got my House total by systematically going race by race, counting each seat I though would flip, mostly based on the public polling. I know my projections are boring, simply slightly on the low end of most other prognosticators. I was tempted to predict that Democrats would lose as many as 80 seats or as few as 30 seats, not because I think either is likely, but because, on the off chance that something very unexpected happened this year, I would looking like a super-genius. In the end, though, I think the conventional wisdom on this election became conventional for many good reasons.

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Election 2010: FDL Community vs. the Professional Prognosticators

With all the entries in Firedoglake’s Election Projection Challenge now in, I decided to see if the aggregate projections of the FDL community can outperform the professional political prognosticators. With that in mind, here is the average of all entries in our contest:

  • Democrats Hold 218 seats in the House
  • Democrats Hold 52.6 seats in the Senate
  • Prop 19 passes with 50.39% of the vote

That’s a loss of 37 seats in the House–or, to look at it another way, it leaves Democrats hanging on to the majority by a single seat. The Democratic caucus in the Senate would see a loss of six to seven members, still leaving it with a working majority.

At least that is how the FDL entrants saw it; as for the professionals. . . .

The professional prognosticators:

Cook Political Report: GOP gains 50-60 seats in House and 6-8 in the Senate.

The Rothenberg Report: GOP gains 55-65 seats in House and 6-8 in the Senate.

Larry Sabato: GOP gains 55 seats in House and 8 in the Senate.

Nate Silver: GOP gains 54-55 seats in the House and 7-8 in the Senate.

My personal prediction is that the Republicans will gain a net total of 51 seats in the House–giving them the majority and leaving the Dems with 204 seats–and Democratic caucus will hold on to 53 Senate seats. I got my House total by systematically going race by race, counting each seat I though would flip, mostly based on the public polling. I know my projections are boring, simply slightly on the low end of most other prognosticators. I was tempted to predict that Democrats would lose as many as 80 seats or as few as 30 seats, not because I think either is likely, but because, on the off chance that something very unexpected happened this year, I would looking like a super-genius. In the end, though, I think the conventional wisdom on this election became conventional for many good reasons.

knowwheretovotebanner

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Jon Walker

Jon Walker

Jonathan Walker grew up in New Jersey. He graduated from Wesleyan University in 2006. He is now living in the Washington DC area. He created a politics and policy blog, The Walker Report (http://jwalkerreport.blogspot.com/).

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