Democrats Trail Significantly in Generic Ballot Polling
The generic ballot polling from all major pollsters indicates that the November election is going to be brutal for Democrats. Polling firms have found the Democrats to be trailing significantly among likely voters.
CNN (PDF) found Democrats trailing by seven percentage points. CBS News and Rassmussen found the Democrats trailing by eight percentage points, while ABC/Washington Post found Republicans with only a six-point lead. Even in Gallup’s more optimistic “high turnout” model, Democrats are still trailing Republicans by 12 percentage points in the generic Congressional ballot among likely voters.
These polls suggest massive Democratic losses. Democrats currently hold a large margin in the House, but to maintain their current majority they would need to have a very large lead in the generic ballot. Even being only tied in the generic ballot would indicate that Democrats would lose dozens of seats this November. For Republicans to be leading by high single digits points to them taking the House by a healthy margin.
However, there are several reasons to believe this November will not be as bad as the generic ballot alone would indicate. For example, the evidence is strong that Republicans have nominated many flawed candidates who are hurting them. But, even if the election ends up slightly “better” for Democrats, almost all major polling indicates the majority is still facing devastating losses in November.